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How to Predict Weather By Observing Your Surroundings - by Mark Allen.

Weather is always a factor to take into consideration when preparing a trip into the backcountry. Conditions can change rapidly, especially in mountainous regions. These changes can be a result of approaching frontal systems or the typical summer afternoon thunderstorm.

If you’re planning a dayhike, more often than not, a quick look at a local forecast from any media source will provide sufficient information for that day.

So, what if you’re planning a multi-day excursion into the backcountry? Most people probably won’t be carrying along a portable radio. Who needs the extra weight, right? A radio, plus batteries, and the space it takes up will normally exclude this item from the pack of most people.

But hope in predicting weather is not lost. There are things you can observe that will often indicate a change in the weather may be approaching.

Approaching Cold Front

In the US, most cold fronts will generally travel in a west to east direction across the country. That being the case, there a few things that will hold true ’most’ of the time. When a system is approaching the wind will normally come from a southerly or southwesterly direction parallel to the frontal boundary.

Another indicator of an approaching front is the presence of cirrus clouds. These are the light feathery ice crystal clouds that are at a high altitude in the atmosphere. They usually precede changes in the weather by roughly 12 to 36 hours.

When the above observations are made, you can expect some changes in the weather in the near future. Cloud cover and precipitation can be expected. The amount and type of precipitation is impossible to determine. If your elevation is high enough and the season is appropriate then snow or ice could form. Of course, it is possible that no rain or snow will occur as the system passes.

When Cumulus Goes Nimbus

CumuloNimbus clouds are the tall thunderstorm clouds often referred to as thunderheads. Passing fronts can occassionally spawn these as the cold air behind the front begins to collide with warm moist air ahead of it.

During summer months, there is almost always at least a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm even when a front is not present. Your eyes and ears are your best instruments to detect their approach. You might like to read our other article, ’ Surviving Summer’s Scorcher-Lightning.’

In Conclusion

By observing conditions in your environment, it is possible to predict some changes in the weather. Of course, as you know, the weather is always full of surprises so determining exactly what will happen is still somewhat difficult. Taking a barometer like the Brunton Sherpa is another method you can try. Simple barometric readings can act as an indicator as well, with rising pressure being indicative of good weather and falling pressure being a result of poor conditions.